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␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ α↔PROPOSAL FOR A STUDY OF A NATIONAL CRASH PROGRAM IN ENERGY

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_This␈α∂is␈α∂a␈α∂proposal␈α∂that␈α∂a␈α∂group␈α∂of␈α∂Stanford␈α∂faculty␈α∂initiate␈α∂a␈α∂study␈α∂of␈α∂a␈α∂national␈α∂crash
␈↓ ↓H␈↓program␈αin␈α
response␈αto␈α
a␈αhypothetical␈α
sudden␈αenergy␈αcrisis.␈α
 A␈αcrisis␈α
may␈αoccur␈α
that␈αwill␈αrequire␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓crash␈αnational␈αprogram,␈αbecause␈αdelays␈αin␈αdeveloping␈αsources␈αof␈αenergy␈αto␈αreplace␈αoil␈αand␈αnatural
␈↓ ↓H␈↓gas␈α
leave␈α
the␈α
United␈α
States␈α
increasingly␈α
vulnerable␈α
to␈α
a␈α
sudden␈α
cutoff␈α
or␈α
gradual␈α
restriction␈αof␈α
our
␈↓ ↓H␈↓energy␈αsupplies.␈α Not␈αeveryone␈αagrees␈αthat␈αsuch␈αa␈αcrisis␈αis␈αlikely␈αor␈αthat␈αa␈αcrash␈αnational␈αprogram
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈αthe␈αkind␈α
we␈αpropose␈αto␈α
study␈αis␈αthe␈αappropriate␈α
response.␈α We␈αdo␈α
not␈αpropose␈αto␈αconvince␈α
such
␈↓ ↓H␈↓people␈αthat␈αa␈αcrash␈αnational␈αprogram␈αis␈αthe␈αmost␈αlikely␈αeventuality.␈α We␈αneed␈αonly␈αconvince␈αsome
␈↓ ↓H␈↓people␈αthat␈αit␈αhas␈αsufficient␈αprobability␈αto␈αjustify␈αstudy␈αand␈αthat␈αthe␈αcrash␈αprogram␈αwill␈αbe␈αbetter
␈↓ ↓H␈↓carried out if there has been preliminary study.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Presumably,␈α
people␈α
who␈α
think␈α
that␈α
a␈α
crisis␈αis␈α
unlikely␈α
or␈α
that␈α
conservation␈α
and␈α
change␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓life-style␈αare␈αthe␈αonly␈αfeasible␈αand␈αappropriate␈αresponses␈αwill␈αnot␈αbe␈αmotivated␈αto␈αtake␈αpart␈αin␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓study.␈α∞ This␈α∞may␈α∞also␈α
be␈α∞the␈α∞response␈α∞of␈α
people␈α∞who␈α∞believe␈α∞that␈α
such␈α∞a␈α∞program␈α∞may␈α
become
␈↓ ↓H␈↓necessary␈α
but␈α
that␈α
the␈α
ideological␈α
and␈α
political␈α
obstacles␈α
will␈α
remain␈α
insuperable␈α
no␈α
matter␈αwhat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓suffering␈α
the␈αpresent␈α
drift␈α
causes.␈α The␈α
study␈α
will␈αmost␈α
likely␈α
attract␈αpeople␈α
willing␈α
to␈αentertain␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓possibility␈α⊃that␈α⊃a␈α⊃crisis␈α⊃will␈α⊃occur,␈α⊃that␈α⊃building␈α⊃new␈α⊃energy␈α⊃capacity␈α⊃in␈α⊃a␈α⊃hurry␈α⊃will␈α∩be␈α⊃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓appropriate␈α
response,␈α
and␈α
that␈α
there␈α
is␈α
a␈α
substantial␈α
probability␈α
that␈α
the␈α
resulting␈α∞suffering␈α
will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bring␈αforth␈αthe␈α
political␈αwill␈αto␈α
overcome␈αthe␈αinstitutional␈α
obstacles.␈α This␈αis␈α
to␈αbe␈αexpected␈αjust␈α
as
␈↓ ↓H␈↓it␈αwas␈αto␈αbe␈αexpected␈αthat␈αthe␈αEngineering␈α235␈αstudy␈αof␈α"Soft␈αEnergy␈αPaths"␈αwould␈αattract␈αmainly
␈↓ ↓H␈↓students who were enthusiastic about such paths.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α⊂initial␈α⊂request␈α⊂for␈α⊂support␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂study␈α⊂should␈α⊂be␈α⊂addressed␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂Department␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Energy.␈α⊂ Although␈α⊂energy␈α⊂planning␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α∂United␈α⊂States␈α⊂is␈α⊂overwhelmingly␈α⊂dominated␈α⊂by␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓acceptance␈α∪of␈α∪and␈α∪even␈α∀approval␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪political␈α∀and␈α∪procedural␈α∪obstacles␈α∪to␈α∀rapid␈α∪energy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓development,␈α⊃the␈α⊃Department␈α⊃of␈α∩Energy␈α⊃should␈α⊃recognize␈α⊃that␈α∩the␈α⊃path␈α⊃they␈α⊃regard␈α∩as␈α⊃most
␈↓ ↓H␈↓probable␈αand␈αdesirable␈αis␈αnot␈α
the␈αonly␈αpossible␈αpath.␈α They␈α
should␈αtherefore␈αbe␈αwilling␈αto␈α
support
␈↓ ↓H␈↓some␈α∂exploration␈α∂of␈α∂alternate␈α∂paths,␈α∞especially␈α∂since␈α∂a␈α∂crisis␈α∂might␈α∞leave␈α∂the␈α∂country␈α∂in␈α∂a␈α∞very
␈↓ ↓H␈↓difficult position.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_There␈α∞is␈α∞a␈α∞substantial␈α∂possibility␈α∞that␈α∞DoE␈α∞will␈α∂not␈α∞support␈α∞the␈α∞study.␈α∂ When␈α∞politicians,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucrats␈α
or␈α
industrial␈α
executives␈α∞face␈α
a␈α
hard␈α
fight␈α
to␈α∞get␈α
a␈α
policy␈α
adopted␈α∞and␈α
implemented,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓they␈αoften␈α
look␈αwith␈α
hostility␈αat␈α
studies␈αof␈αcontingencies␈α
other␈αthan␈α
those␈αfor␈α
which␈αthey␈α
plan␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓provide.␈α However,␈αmature␈αpolicy␈αmakers␈αwill␈αface␈αthe␈αfact␈αthat␈αtheir␈αmain␈αplan␈αmay␈αbe␈αmistaken,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α
it␈αa␈α
decision␈α
to␈αsupport␈α
this␈α
study␈αwould␈α
be␈αa␈α
sign␈α
of␈αmaturity␈α
in␈α
DoE,␈αand␈α
making␈α
such␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓decision would be educational for them.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈αsecond␈αpossibility␈αis␈α
EPRI.␈α Many␈αof␈αtheir␈α
people␈αbelieve␈αthat␈αa␈α
bad␈αcrisis␈αis␈αlikely,␈α
but
␈↓ ↓H␈↓if␈α
they␈α
support␈αthe␈α
study,␈α
they␈α
will␈αprobably␈α
get␈α
some␈α
political␈αflack.␈α
 Some␈α
people␈α
may␈αregard␈α
any
␈↓ ↓H␈↓study␈α
of␈α
a␈αcrash␈α
program␈α
as␈αa␈α
plot␈α
against␈αthe␈α
environment,␈α
and␈αEPRI's␈α
sponsors␈α
may␈α
feel␈αthey
␈↓ ↓H␈↓have␈α
enough␈α
accusations␈α∞as␈α
it␈α
is.␈α∞ As␈α
with␈α
the␈α∞government,␈α
facing␈α
this␈α∞flack␈α
would␈α
be␈α∞good␈α
for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓them.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α→third␈α→possibility␈α~is␈α→private␈α→foundation.␈α→ Most␈α~likely␈α→there␈α→are␈α~several␈α→whose
␈↓ ↓H␈↓management␈αwould␈αconsider␈αa␈αcrisis␈αcalling␈αfor␈αa␈αcrash␈αprogram␈αas␈αlikely.␈α It␈αwould␈αbe␈αbest␈αif␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Ford␈α∂Foundation,␈α∂which␈α∂has␈α∂sponsored␈α∂other␈α⊂views␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂energy␈α∂problem,␈α∂would␈α⊂sponsor␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓exploration␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞crisis-crash-program␈α∞possibility.␈α∂ Probably␈α∞they␈α∞too␈α∞will␈α∞not␈α∞want␈α∂to␈α∞support
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 92


␈↓ ↓H␈↓studies␈αof␈αcontingencies␈αtheir␈αprevious␈αstudies␈αignore.␈α Thus␈αanother␈αfoundation␈αis␈αthe␈αmost␈αlikely
␈↓ ↓H␈↓supporter.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_One␈α
can␈α
imagine␈α
crises␈α
of␈α
different␈α
degrees␈α
of␈α
urgency␈α
and␈α
different␈α
levels␈α
of␈α
response␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αcrisis.␈α However,␈αthe␈αmost␈αuseful␈αdata␈αpoint␈αis␈αprobably␈αa␈αprolonged␈αembargo␈αwith␈αa␈αpolitical
␈↓ ↓H␈↓response␈αsupporting␈αprograms␈αwith␈αpriorities␈αand␈αresource␈αmobilizations␈αlike␈αthose␈αof␈αWorld␈αWar
␈↓ ↓H␈↓II.  This is the best that we know American society is capable of.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓QUESTIONS TO STUDY

␈↓ ↓H␈↓1.␈α∪Crash␈α∪program␈α∪to␈α∪build␈α∪nuclear␈α∪plants␈α∩sufficient␈α∪to␈α∪eliminate␈α∪oil␈α∪and␈α∪gas␈α∪as␈α∪sources␈α∩of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓electricity.␈α∞ There␈α∞are␈α∞substantial␈α∂differences␈α∞of␈α∞opinion␈α∞in␈α∞how␈α∂fast␈α∞they␈α∞could␈α∞be␈α∂built.␈α∞ Some
␈↓ ↓H␈↓people␈α∂can't␈α⊂seem␈α∂to␈α∂free␈α⊂themselves␈α∂from␈α∂presuming␈α⊂the␈α∂present␈α∂procedural␈α⊂obstacles.␈α∂ Others
␈↓ ↓H␈↓(including␈α⊂one␈α⊂Bechtel␈α⊂official)␈α⊃say␈α⊂that␈α⊂if␈α⊂the␈α⊂obstacles␈α⊃were␈α⊂removed␈α⊂and␈α⊂if␈α⊃manpower␈α⊂and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓material␈α
priorities␈α
were␈α
made␈α
available,␈αplants␈α
could␈α
be␈α
built␈α
in␈αone␈α
or␈α
two␈α
years.␈α
 One␈α
can␈αcite
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α⊃fact␈α⊃that␈α⊃the␈α⊃Hanford␈α⊃plutonium␈α⊃production␈α⊃plant␈α⊃was␈α⊃working␈α⊃two␈α⊃years␈α⊃after␈α⊃the␈α⊂first
␈↓ ↓H␈↓nuclear␈αchain␈αreaction;␈αwhile␈αit␈αis␈αsimpler␈αthan␈αa␈αpower␈αplant,␈αit␈αhandles␈αabout␈αthe␈αsame␈αamount
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α∂energy.␈α∂ The␈α∂study␈α∂should␈α∂try␈α∂to␈α∂estimate␈α∂what␈α∂are␈α∂the␈α∂manpower␈α∂requirements␈α∂for␈α∂a␈α∞large
␈↓ ↓H␈↓increase␈α
in␈α
production␈α
rate,␈α
whether␈α
Westinghouse,␈α
G.E,␈α
etc.␈α
can␈α
do␈α
the␈α
job␈α
in␈α
their␈αexisting␈α
works
␈↓ ↓H␈↓or␈α
whether␈α
new␈α
organizations␈α
and␈α
factories␈α
are␈α
required,␈α
what␈α
the␈α
bottlenecks␈α
are,␈α∞whether␈α
new
␈↓ ↓H␈↓enrichment␈αand␈αmining␈αfacilities␈αare␈αrequired,␈αand␈αwhether␈αbreeders␈αcould␈αbe␈αincluded␈αin␈αsuch␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓program.␈α Can␈αFrench␈αor␈αother␈αforeign␈αdesigns␈αbe␈αcopied?␈α Are␈αthere␈αinexpensive␈αlong␈αlead␈αtime
␈↓ ↓H␈↓items␈α
that␈α∞could␈α
be␈α∞provided␈α
in␈α∞advance?␈α
 Should␈α∞the␈α
companies␈α∞involved␈α
have␈α∞crash␈α
program
␈↓ ↓H␈↓contingency plans?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Is␈αthe␈αbest␈αplan␈αto␈αbuild␈αmany␈αnew␈αplants␈αat␈αthe␈αsites␈αof␈αexisting␈αnuclear␈αplants?␈α Are␈αthere␈αareas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of the country that require new sites?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓2.␈α⊂Can␈α⊂existing␈α∂natural␈α⊂gas␈α⊂facilities␈α∂be␈α⊂supplemented␈α⊂by␈α∂nuclear␈α⊂electric␈α⊂hydrogen␈α⊂or␈α∂nuclear
␈↓ ↓H␈↓thermal␈αhydrogen?␈α
 Should␈αsuch␈αplants␈α
be␈αco-located␈αwith␈α
existing␈αsources␈αof␈α
natural␈αgas␈αin␈α
order
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to use the pipelines.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓3.␈α∩What␈α∩is␈α∩required␈α∩for␈α∩a␈α∩crash␈α∩program␈α∩in␈α∩oil␈α∩shale?␈α∩ In␈α∩fuels␈α∩from␈α∩shale?␈α∩ Is␈α∩biomass␈α∩a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓significant possibility if agricultural exports are not to be reduced?  What if they may be reduced?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓4.␈α⊂Can␈α⊃the␈α⊂required␈α⊂institutional␈α⊃changes␈α⊂be␈α⊂produced␈α⊃by␈α⊂a␈α⊂single␈α⊃Energy␈α⊂Emergency␈α⊃Act␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Congress?  The study might prepare a draft of such an act.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 93


␈↓ ↓H␈↓PLAN OF STUDY

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_It␈α⊂might␈α⊂be␈α⊂a␈α⊂version␈α⊂of␈α⊂EE235,␈α⊂but␈α⊂most␈α⊂likely␈α⊂it␈α⊂should␈α⊂not␈α⊂attempt␈α⊂to␈α⊂take␈α⊂over␈α⊂an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓existing␈α
form,␈αbecause␈α
the␈αopposition␈α
will␈αbe␈α
too␈αgreat.␈α
 It␈αcould␈α
include␈αstudents␈α
working␈αfor␈α
both
␈↓ ↓H␈↓credit␈α
and␈α
money.␈α
 Discussions␈α
with␈α
nuclear,␈α
coal,␈α
oil␈α
utilities␈α
and␈α
engineering␈α∞companies␈α
should
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈α
included.␈α Questionnaires␈α
and␈α
traveling␈αinterviewers␈α
could␈α
be␈αused.␈α
 Students␈α
should␈αperhaps
␈↓ ↓H␈↓start␈αby␈αreading␈α
the␈αSmythe␈αReport,␈α
and␈αprofessors␈αshould␈αreread␈α
it␈αto␈αget␈α
an␈αideas␈αof␈α
what␈αwas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓done␈α
in␈α∞a␈α
past␈α∞emergency.␈α
 There␈α∞may␈α
be␈α∞a␈α
more␈α∞engineering␈α
oriented␈α∞study␈α
of␈α∞the␈α
Manhattan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Project or parts of it that could be used.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Computer Science Department
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓ARPANET: MCCARTHY@SU-AI

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓εThis draft of CRASH[S78,JMC] PUBbed at 16:01 on June 19, 1978.␈↓